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Debunked! Shabana Mahmood’s New Immigration Rules Are Punitive and Pointless

The home secretary’s ‘earned settlement’ policy will keep many low-paid migrant workers unable to put down permanent roots. This is a political own goal and makes no economic sense.

Jonathan Portes's avatar
Jonathan Portes
Nov 03, 2026
∙ Paid

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Shabana Mahmood’s policy was denounced by the Conservatives and Reform UK, and is unlikely to persuade any voters to return to Labour. Photo by Oli Scarff / AFP via Getty Images

When Shabana Mahmood first announced her proposals for “earned settlement”, I argued that extending the qualifying period for permanent residence would be economically damaging – and that the proposed treatment of migrant care workers was morally indefensible. Requiring people who had come here legally, at the invitation of the British government, to wait 15 years before being allowed to settle would have condemned them to prolonged insecurity, with their ability to remain in the UK dependent on employers willing to sponsor them. The proposals bore an uncomfortable resemblance to the kafala system in use in many Gulf states, in which a migrant worker’s legal residency and employment status are tied directly to a local individual sponsor or employer, known as a kafeel. The systems are not identical, but the underlying logic – keeping low-paid migrant workers dependent, insecure and unable to put down permanent roots – was disturbingly similar.

In that respect, yesterday’s announcement of the long-anticipated overhaul of the UK’s Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) rules and the move to an “earned settlement” system represents a substantial and welcome, if still only partial, retreat. Following pressure from ministers, Labour MPs and trade unions, the government has abandoned the proposed 15-year route for lower-skilled workers, including care workers. It estimates that around 146,000 care workers and 136,000 dependants could retain a five-year route to settlement. However, the concession is conditional. Care workers must meet their visa requirements, including earning at least £25,000. The Home Office estimates that around 50,000 care workers, with a similar number of dependants, may not qualify. Instead, they, along with other lower-paid workers, will be offered another five-year visa, requiring further sponsored employment.

The Economic Rationale Crumbles

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